📉 Full Multi-Factor Analysis – EUR/JPY
🔍 1. Price Action
EUR/JPY strongly rejected the key supply zone between 164.80–165.50, aligned with a major static resistance.
Last week's breakout was invalidated by a clear bull trap, followed by a bearish engulfing candle.
Price broke below the ascending channel drawn since April and is now heading toward the 162.00 demand area.
The weekly RSI shows a bearish divergence, confirming a slowdown in momentum.
➡️ Technical Bias: Bearish toward 161.50–162.00, with a possible extension to 160.00.
💼 2. COT Data – Commitment of Traders
EUR Futures (CME)
Strong increase in commercial longs (+16,095) and non-commercial shorts (+4,830).
Suggests smart money is accumulating while retail/speculators are pressing shorts — potential accumulation, but no breakout yet.
JPY Futures
Significant rise in non-commercial shorts (+10,575), while long positions declined.
The yen remains pressured, but extreme positioning could fuel a reversal if sentiment flips.
➡️ COT Takeaway: Euro remains in bullish consolidation. Yen is heavily oversold — ripe for mean reversion. Caution warranted.
📊 3. Retail Sentiment
80% of retail traders are short from an average price of 160.46, while price now sits at 164.86.
The crowd is deep in drawdown — a typical condition for short-term consolidations or fakeouts before reversals.
➡️ Implication: Price may hover around 164+ to trap remaining retail shorts before unwinding.
📈 4. Seasonality
June seasonality for EUR/JPY is historically neutral to bearish.
Only the 5-year data shows strength, while 15Y and 20Y trends reveal consistent downside starting mid-June.
➡️ Seasonal Outlook: Adds further weight to a bearish correction scenario for the second half of the month.
✅ Actionable Summary
📌 Weekly Bias: Bearish
📉 Main Target: 162.00–161.50
📉 Extended Target: 160.00
📈 Invalidation: Weekly close above 165.60
🧠 Final Thoughts
All major elements — price action, COT, sentiment, and seasonality — point toward a corrective move on EUR/JPY.
Given the strong underlying trend and retail’s positioning, watch out for bull traps before deeper downside.
Best setup: Sell the pullback or wait for clean breakdown below 163.00.
🔍 1. Price Action
EUR/JPY strongly rejected the key supply zone between 164.80–165.50, aligned with a major static resistance.
Last week's breakout was invalidated by a clear bull trap, followed by a bearish engulfing candle.
Price broke below the ascending channel drawn since April and is now heading toward the 162.00 demand area.
The weekly RSI shows a bearish divergence, confirming a slowdown in momentum.
➡️ Technical Bias: Bearish toward 161.50–162.00, with a possible extension to 160.00.
💼 2. COT Data – Commitment of Traders
EUR Futures (CME)
Strong increase in commercial longs (+16,095) and non-commercial shorts (+4,830).
Suggests smart money is accumulating while retail/speculators are pressing shorts — potential accumulation, but no breakout yet.
JPY Futures
Significant rise in non-commercial shorts (+10,575), while long positions declined.
The yen remains pressured, but extreme positioning could fuel a reversal if sentiment flips.
➡️ COT Takeaway: Euro remains in bullish consolidation. Yen is heavily oversold — ripe for mean reversion. Caution warranted.
📊 3. Retail Sentiment
80% of retail traders are short from an average price of 160.46, while price now sits at 164.86.
The crowd is deep in drawdown — a typical condition for short-term consolidations or fakeouts before reversals.
➡️ Implication: Price may hover around 164+ to trap remaining retail shorts before unwinding.
📈 4. Seasonality
June seasonality for EUR/JPY is historically neutral to bearish.
Only the 5-year data shows strength, while 15Y and 20Y trends reveal consistent downside starting mid-June.
➡️ Seasonal Outlook: Adds further weight to a bearish correction scenario for the second half of the month.
✅ Actionable Summary
📌 Weekly Bias: Bearish
📉 Main Target: 162.00–161.50
📉 Extended Target: 160.00
📈 Invalidation: Weekly close above 165.60
🧠 Final Thoughts
All major elements — price action, COT, sentiment, and seasonality — point toward a corrective move on EUR/JPY.
Given the strong underlying trend and retail’s positioning, watch out for bull traps before deeper downside.
Best setup: Sell the pullback or wait for clean breakdown below 163.00.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.