British Pound (CFTC - CME)
Commercial traders increased their long positions by +1,839 contracts and short positions by +3,597. Net exposure remains negative, but the significant short increase suggests active hedging and risk management.
Non-Commercial traders (speculators) reduced their longs by -1,396 and increased their shorts by +1,827, signaling weakening sentiment toward the GBP.
Open Interest rose modestly by +465 → showing renewed engagement, though there’s clear divergence between Commercial and Non-Commercial positioning.
Implication: Net pressure remains bearish, but there's evidence of short saturation from Commercials, possibly hinting at a consolidation phase or reversal ahead.
USD Index (ICE Futures)
Non-Commercials increased both longs (+2,044) and shorts (+1,975), signaling indecision.
Commercials slightly increased long exposure (+689), while shorts remained mostly flat (-114).
Implication: The dollar shows cautious strengthening, but with no strong directional conviction. A period of ranging price action is likely.
2. Retail Sentiment
67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with only 33% long.
Volume favors short positions as well: 7,727 lots vs. 3,866 long.
Implication: From a contrarian perspective, the excessive short bias among retail traders supports a short-term bullish scenario, possibly driven by a short squeeze or liquidity run.
3. Historical Seasonality
May shows a historically bearish tendency:
10-Year Avg: -2.22%
5-Year Avg: -1.60%
2-Year Avg: -0.65%
Implication: Seasonal bias remains negative, but should be interpreted alongside COT and sentiment data to avoid misleading signals.
4. Technical Analysis
Price is currently trading inside a weekly resistance zone between 1.3513 and 1.3600, following a strong bounce from a dynamic support.
A previous structure break failed to follow through → bull trap was avoided.
The weekly RSI is rising from neutral levels, suggesting momentum is shifting upward.
Previous demand zones around 1.3176 and 1.3047 held well.
Implication: A potential breakout is forming, but it occurs near a key technical level. Without strong volume or fundamentals, the area may trigger a sell reaction.
5. Market Depth
There is a heavy cluster of short orders above current price, while long orders appear scattered and less aggressive.
This creates a liquidity magnet effect, which may lead to bullish spikes towards 1.3550–1.3600 before any meaningful distribution.
Implication: Potential upside extension in the short-term to hunt stops, followed by a bearish reaction.
🎯 Operational Outlook
Main Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish short-term, Bearish (Seasonal) mid-term
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 1.3550–1.3600
Support zone: Ascending trendline and 1.3340–1.3176
Likely Scenarios:
Price may spike toward 1.3550 to clear liquidity before facing rejection.
A confirmed weekly close above 1.3610 opens the door to 1.3750.
A drop below 1.3340 confirms structural reversal and bearish continuation.
Commercial traders increased their long positions by +1,839 contracts and short positions by +3,597. Net exposure remains negative, but the significant short increase suggests active hedging and risk management.
Non-Commercial traders (speculators) reduced their longs by -1,396 and increased their shorts by +1,827, signaling weakening sentiment toward the GBP.
Open Interest rose modestly by +465 → showing renewed engagement, though there’s clear divergence between Commercial and Non-Commercial positioning.
Implication: Net pressure remains bearish, but there's evidence of short saturation from Commercials, possibly hinting at a consolidation phase or reversal ahead.
USD Index (ICE Futures)
Non-Commercials increased both longs (+2,044) and shorts (+1,975), signaling indecision.
Commercials slightly increased long exposure (+689), while shorts remained mostly flat (-114).
Implication: The dollar shows cautious strengthening, but with no strong directional conviction. A period of ranging price action is likely.
2. Retail Sentiment
67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with only 33% long.
Volume favors short positions as well: 7,727 lots vs. 3,866 long.
Implication: From a contrarian perspective, the excessive short bias among retail traders supports a short-term bullish scenario, possibly driven by a short squeeze or liquidity run.
3. Historical Seasonality
May shows a historically bearish tendency:
10-Year Avg: -2.22%
5-Year Avg: -1.60%
2-Year Avg: -0.65%
Implication: Seasonal bias remains negative, but should be interpreted alongside COT and sentiment data to avoid misleading signals.
4. Technical Analysis
Price is currently trading inside a weekly resistance zone between 1.3513 and 1.3600, following a strong bounce from a dynamic support.
A previous structure break failed to follow through → bull trap was avoided.
The weekly RSI is rising from neutral levels, suggesting momentum is shifting upward.
Previous demand zones around 1.3176 and 1.3047 held well.
Implication: A potential breakout is forming, but it occurs near a key technical level. Without strong volume or fundamentals, the area may trigger a sell reaction.
5. Market Depth
There is a heavy cluster of short orders above current price, while long orders appear scattered and less aggressive.
This creates a liquidity magnet effect, which may lead to bullish spikes towards 1.3550–1.3600 before any meaningful distribution.
Implication: Potential upside extension in the short-term to hunt stops, followed by a bearish reaction.
🎯 Operational Outlook
Main Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish short-term, Bearish (Seasonal) mid-term
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 1.3550–1.3600
Support zone: Ascending trendline and 1.3340–1.3176
Likely Scenarios:
Price may spike toward 1.3550 to clear liquidity before facing rejection.
A confirmed weekly close above 1.3610 opens the door to 1.3750.
A drop below 1.3340 confirms structural reversal and bearish continuation.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
📈 Nicola | EdgeTradingJourney
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Documenting my path to $1M in prop capital through real trading, discipline, and analysis.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.